Great outline - I agree with all except fertilizer but did find your argument persuasive especially the China Urea piece. I definitely think some fertilizer companies will benefit from super El Niño, you can see it in the last El Niño. Great charts on supply!
Hormuz is far from over. Iran is contemplating preemptive strikes now (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202609014196). The fanatics are solidly in charge. The US will get barrels through, but they will demand some kind of risk premium for it. And there is all the hassle with ship to ship transfer.
Where you're flat out wrong is the crack spread. Ukraine is currently producing 10 million drones/year, reaching 20 million drones/year some time next year. That means Russia is a product importer now and will continue to be for the foreseeable future.
your conflating "fertilizers" with "urea". I'd be more specific by saying nitrogen fertilizers or urea.
Fertilizers in general. Wanted to focus more on China and Urea.
Better late than never
We always been bullish.
Great outline - I agree with all except fertilizer but did find your argument persuasive especially the China Urea piece. I definitely think some fertilizer companies will benefit from super El Niño, you can see it in the last El Niño. Great charts on supply!
Thank you!
Hormuz is far from over. Iran is contemplating preemptive strikes now (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202609014196). The fanatics are solidly in charge. The US will get barrels through, but they will demand some kind of risk premium for it. And there is all the hassle with ship to ship transfer.
Where you're flat out wrong is the crack spread. Ukraine is currently producing 10 million drones/year, reaching 20 million drones/year some time next year. That means Russia is a product importer now and will continue to be for the foreseeable future.
Good luck.