Excellent analysis. For fundamental investors with a 5-to-10-year horizon, how should we weigh the opportunity set between US AI infrastructure and emerging market equities? Do you view AI as a centralizing force that further concentrates capital in the US or potentially as a catalyst that accelerates growth in regions like LatAm through localized adoption?"
Thank you Eduardo! Great questions. I would say that US AI is still early if we compare with what is going on in South Korea, Taïwan, China, Hong Kong, but looking forward the new IPOs in the US for AI companies will be interesting too watch because they tend to have way too high valuations.
Valuing BABA and BIDU compared to these and to other AI plays is hard for me to grasp at this point. Is the difference jurisdictional risk? Are they thought to be so far behind on tech that they can’t catch up?
Makes sense, thank you! Agreed on the US' IPOs valuation risk, and it will be interesting to see how AI in Asia develops and what ultimately happens to multiples
It's impossible to take someone who writes this seriously. In space there is no conductive or convective cooling, only radiative, which is is very inefficient, and it certainly is not free. Any investment in SpaceX is obviously a "greater fool" trade. Good luck.
Thank you - Fantastic work. One thing on point 7: If the MAG7 have big stakes in private AI companies (as described above), and those AI companies get re-valued prior to their IPOs (see recent Anthropic round), isn´t there a risk, that S&P500 Tech EPS (as the basis for the chart above) are inflated by valuation gains rather than cash-profits?
Excellent analysis. For fundamental investors with a 5-to-10-year horizon, how should we weigh the opportunity set between US AI infrastructure and emerging market equities? Do you view AI as a centralizing force that further concentrates capital in the US or potentially as a catalyst that accelerates growth in regions like LatAm through localized adoption?"
Thank you Eduardo! Great questions. I would say that US AI is still early if we compare with what is going on in South Korea, Taïwan, China, Hong Kong, but looking forward the new IPOs in the US for AI companies will be interesting too watch because they tend to have way too high valuations.
Valuing BABA and BIDU compared to these and to other AI plays is hard for me to grasp at this point. Is the difference jurisdictional risk? Are they thought to be so far behind on tech that they can’t catch up?
Makes sense, thank you! Agreed on the US' IPOs valuation risk, and it will be interesting to see how AI in Asia develops and what ultimately happens to multiples
"In space, there are no cooling costs."
It's impossible to take someone who writes this seriously. In space there is no conductive or convective cooling, only radiative, which is is very inefficient, and it certainly is not free. Any investment in SpaceX is obviously a "greater fool" trade. Good luck.
Thank you for your comment, Patrick. That was just sarcasm…
Thank you - Fantastic work. One thing on point 7: If the MAG7 have big stakes in private AI companies (as described above), and those AI companies get re-valued prior to their IPOs (see recent Anthropic round), isn´t there a risk, that S&P500 Tech EPS (as the basis for the chart above) are inflated by valuation gains rather than cash-profits?