I understand the thesis where valuation likely decreased more than it should for a business which remains quite recurring. The question which is not answered here is why now ? What is the catalyst to enter now rather than 2 months ago or in 6 months ?
This is helpful. I’ve been a BSX shareholder for a few years now with an average cost basis in the low $50s. So, I’ve seen the ups and the downs. Every few months or so, I’ve been using Claude to refresh the thesis to supplement my own research. I’ve got to tell you that Claude and I are a tad less optimistic than you are for a few reasons: 1. Historically well-regarded top management have had to cut guidance multiple times; 2. Question marks around a potential class-action lawsuit related to whether BSX timely shared news of adverse developments related to EP revenues; 3. Question marks around timing of close of Penumbra deal given the FTC’s additional request for information. To be fair, perhaps your take and IR’s comments already considered them in coming up with the price targets. The franchise still seems to be good and has historically executed well (why I bought in the first place) and so I’m holding on to my existing investment for now. Thanks
it really does not appear in your valuation that you have modeled the Penumbra acquisition correctly & consequently the very high share repurchase you model is doing a lot of heavy lifting that seems impossible given the debt load they will be carrying. page 27 you note that you include all announced acquistions, but on page 30 you say you exclude penumbra. would love to see the explicit math on reconciling these points, especially the debt, share-repurchase.
Very clear piece, thank you! I was just wondering if there are no signs of dark clouds coming from China, like it is the case for an Intuitive Surgical for instance?
I appreciate the overall sentiment of the post. I have reasonable good insight into management of these conditions. Im not totally convinced of the Watchman intervention unless its focused on a very few select group if patients. I dont think its a communication issue. I personally wouldn't be recommending it based on the clinical data available.
My assumption is that the watchman risk is realised or worse.
How does this company fare?
The strength here is the acquisition of interesting start ups and their penetration into hospitals. If a promising product comes in, then they probably have the best platform to rapidly put it into practice.
i have been buying also. penumbra could be a catalyst once it closes bc financed via debt and equity of bsx priced in the $90s. besides insider buys, i think bsx could also buy back shares meaningfully in this $40-55 range.
Great research, thanks! how are you sizing this in the index?
We put 4% for BSX.
I understand the thesis where valuation likely decreased more than it should for a business which remains quite recurring. The question which is not answered here is why now ? What is the catalyst to enter now rather than 2 months ago or in 6 months ?
This is helpful. I’ve been a BSX shareholder for a few years now with an average cost basis in the low $50s. So, I’ve seen the ups and the downs. Every few months or so, I’ve been using Claude to refresh the thesis to supplement my own research. I’ve got to tell you that Claude and I are a tad less optimistic than you are for a few reasons: 1. Historically well-regarded top management have had to cut guidance multiple times; 2. Question marks around a potential class-action lawsuit related to whether BSX timely shared news of adverse developments related to EP revenues; 3. Question marks around timing of close of Penumbra deal given the FTC’s additional request for information. To be fair, perhaps your take and IR’s comments already considered them in coming up with the price targets. The franchise still seems to be good and has historically executed well (why I bought in the first place) and so I’m holding on to my existing investment for now. Thanks
it really does not appear in your valuation that you have modeled the Penumbra acquisition correctly & consequently the very high share repurchase you model is doing a lot of heavy lifting that seems impossible given the debt load they will be carrying. page 27 you note that you include all announced acquistions, but on page 30 you say you exclude penumbra. would love to see the explicit math on reconciling these points, especially the debt, share-repurchase.
Very clear piece, thank you! I was just wondering if there are no signs of dark clouds coming from China, like it is the case for an Intuitive Surgical for instance?
I appreciate the overall sentiment of the post. I have reasonable good insight into management of these conditions. Im not totally convinced of the Watchman intervention unless its focused on a very few select group if patients. I dont think its a communication issue. I personally wouldn't be recommending it based on the clinical data available.
My assumption is that the watchman risk is realised or worse.
How does this company fare?
The strength here is the acquisition of interesting start ups and their penetration into hospitals. If a promising product comes in, then they probably have the best platform to rapidly put it into practice.
Great choice. I’ve been a BSX fan since my AFib was treated with the Farapulse at the Cleveland Clinic 3 years ago. I think GMED is a great pick too!
Thanks Steven. Could not agree more with you here, both amazing businesses!
I just happened to buy this last week for the same reasons.
Welcome to the party Bok!
Absurdly undervalued. The re-rating hasn’t happened yet. That’s the opportunity!
https://paretoinvestor.substack.com/p/nuclear-is-the-new-oil
i have been buying also. penumbra could be a catalyst once it closes bc financed via debt and equity of bsx priced in the $90s. besides insider buys, i think bsx could also buy back shares meaningfully in this $40-55 range.