Aurelion Research

Aurelion Research

Commodity

The Tanker Trade: Geopolitics & the Setup

The Shipping Series

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Aurelion Research
Jul 20, 2025
∙ Paid

In our June 9 update, The Tanker Trade: Confirmation and Continuation, we outlined a bullish view on crude oil tanker stocks.

At the time, three structural shifts were driving long-haul demand: rising OPEC+ supply, growing Asian refining capacity, and the rerouting of Russian crude. Vessel supply remained constrained, and investor interest was low, making it a classic early-stage setup.

As of mid-July, the setup has intensified, not just due to fundamentals, but because geopolitical friction and sanctions enforcement are creating new dislocations in global oil flows.


Geopolitics Elevated, But No War

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