The Iran War Playbook: Chemicals, Fertilizers, and 2 New High‑Conviction Stocks
Amid a potential ceasefire and reopening of Hormuz, this report aims to provide the most comprehensive analysis of the supply disruption driven by the Iran war.
Between the US, Israel, and Iran, we never really run out of news. Some of it is just noise, but some of it is incredibly relevant. As analysts, our job is to filter out the distractions and focus on the stories that actually impact our investment thesis or reveal new trends that we can benefit from.
That brings us to today’s subject: the situation in Iran and its direct implications for the chemical and fertilizer markets.
Let’s start with chemical prices. They have jumped since the Strait of Hormuz was blocked in March and are still climbing as we head into April.
We do not expect this trend to slow down soon. Since key production sites are now being targeted, the squeeze on global supply will only get tighter.
Table of Contents
Hormuz Reopening: Timing the Ceasefire
1.1 Physical Oil & Market Narrative
1.2 The Strategic Value of the Strait of Hormuz
What Industry Leaders Are Saying
2.1 Dow CEO Jim Fitterling: The 275-Day Unwind
2.2 Chevron CEO Mike Wirth: Supply on the Ground
2.3 Growmark on Fertilizer & Food Security
Chemical Market and the Iran War Impact
3.1 Our View on the Petrochemical Market
Fertilizer Market and the Iran War Impact
4.1 Our View on the Phosphate Market
Tracking Iran’s Discounted Supply
2 New Favorite Chemical & Fertilizer Stocks Added to the Aurelion Index
6.1 The Global Leader in Industrial Chemicals
6.2 A Vertically Integrated Phosphate Pure Play
Our Final Take on the Opportunity