Introduction
The tanker market is entering the fourth quarter of 2025 with rare momentum. VLCCs are already earning six figures on benchmark routes, and the rally has developed in a stable trading environment rather than being sparked by geopolitical shocks.
Underlying conditions explain the strength. The fleet is aging, new-building remains muted, and regulatory measures continue to reduce effective capacity. Voyages are taking longer, available ship-days are shrinking, and each additional cargo puts pressure on a fleet that has little slack left.
The timing makes this setup even more striking. September is typically the weakest month of the year, yet earnings have held at levels normally associated with winter peaks. That reversal of seasonal norms matters.
History shows that when Sept. begins strong, the fourth quarter almost always compounds the move. In our view, 2025 is aligned with that pattern, and the stage is set for one of the most compelling finishes to a year the market has seen in recent memory.