Oil 2026 Research Primer: A Comprehensive Market Analysis
A Framework For Reading The Oil Market & 2 Actionable Ideas
By Jeremie | Aurelion Research
As we approach 2026, we are initiating an in-depth analysis of the oil sector and provide 2 actionable investment ideas.
This commodity remains a primary driver of the global economy and influences industrial activity in ways that can exceed market expectations.
It is essential to global infrastructure and serves as a key input for many industrial processes. While we recognize that oil is difficult to forecast for both equity performance and spot pricing, we enter 2026 with a bullish view on oil spot prices and oil equities.
World Oil Supply & Demand Into 2026
When it comes to oil, there are a lot of moving parts to consider before forming a clear view of crude. So we start with where the market stands today on demand and supply, then connect that to spot prices.
Headline forecasts lean toward a looser balance into 2026. Demand growth slows from the post pandemic rebound, while supply growth stays firm, led by non-OPEC producers in most models. The mix also shifts, with OPEC+ contribution moving year to year as policy changes, while non OPEC barrels account for a larger share of incremental supply into 2026 and 2027.