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Aurelion Research

Commodity

MP Materials: Repricing U.S. Rare Earths

The true worth of America’s rare earth leader

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Aurelion Research
Sep 13, 2025
∙ Paid

Introduction

MP is moving from buildout into scale.

The magnet line is producing customer-qualified parts, deferred revenue from GM is converting to shipments, and Stage II yields are advancing toward 85%. These milestones are supported by a long-term NdPr price deck near $125/kg and a balance sheet carrying $1.8B in net cash.

The operating base is strengthening, execution risk is receding, and customer traction is becoming visible. This combination marks the shift toward a scaled earnings profile with meaningful strategic optionality.


What’s driving value?

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