Thesis:
Century used to be on its back foot; now it’s in good shape.
Two U.S. policy tailwinds, a 25% tariff on imported aluminum and cash refunds from Section 45X, give it steadier, price-agnostic cash flow.
In Iceland, a long-term low-cost power deal (+ added billet capacity) lowers costs and lets CENX sell more low-carbon metal at a small premium.
Debt is manageable with no big maturity until 2027. Yet the stock still trades like none of this changed, leaving CENX below replacement cost.