Anthropic and the SaaS Sell-off: Structural Shifts in the AI Ecosystem?
Thesis update on our SaaS pick and navigating AI and SaaS fears
Description: Thesis update on our SaaS company & industry news.
The software industry is going through a massive change right now.
For years, SaaS companies were some of the best-performing stocks because they sold tools that every office worker needed. But with Anthropic releasing Claude Cowork, that entire business model is being questioned.
When an entire industry is in doubt, the market doesn't take it well, and SaaS stocks are learning that the hard way right now. The catalyst is a fundamental change in work itself: we are moving from software that helps people work to AI agents that actually do the work for them. This is a direct threat to the “per-seat” pricing model that almost every software company uses. If an AI agent can handle the workload of five people, a business only needs to buy one license instead of five.
That is why we are seeing a major sell-off across the sector in 2026.
The market reaction has been fast and heavy. Big names like RELX and Thomson Reuters have seen their stocks drop as investors realize their specialized tools are being replaced by general AI agents that can navigate browsers and fill out forms just as well. If an AI can do the job directly, the value of the software used to do that job disappears.
Stocks At Risk of AI Disruption Under Renewed Pressure
This report looks at why the old SaaS playbook is failing. We are seeing a permanent shift in how the market values software companies. We believe the winners will no longer be the ones that provide the best tools, but the ones that can actually replace the labor itself.
The chart below puts the current SaaS drawdown in context by pairing the sector’s average EV/forward revenue multiple with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields over the past 5 years. The takeaway is clear: SaaS has already been repriced. The sector has fallen from peak multiples near 20x in late 2020 to about 4.6x by mid-January 2026, even as the rate backdrop remains elevated, with 10-year yields in the low 4% range.
SaaS Valuation Reset vs Rates: EV/FTM Revenue vs 10-Year Yields
The key takeaway is that today’s valuation level reflects a market that is already skeptical. Even with yields elevated, the multiple compression has been far larger than the move in rates. That tells us the sell-off is being driven by a mix of duration unwind and narrative pressure, not just macro.
Now, in a broader context, let’s look at Stephens Research’s perspective on Anthropic and the market’s AI-related concerns across SaaS.
While markets have reacted with elevated volatility, Stephens Research offers a more measured assessment. As you can see below, their work suggests that the panic following the release of Anthropic’s Claude Cowork has reached an emotional high point, clouding investor judgment around the durability of established software platforms.
They argue that fears of AI disintermediating SaaS are overstated. Incumbent platforms benefit from proprietary data, core workflows, and long operating histories that large language models do not replicate. These attributes reinforce their position as systems of record. In this framework, AI acts as a lever on software economics by strengthening platform defensibility and lifting customer ROI through deeper automation and workflow efficiency.
Stephens views the early-2026 sell-off as a sentiment-driven reset, with investors tactically de-risking ahead of the guidance cycle on AI uncertainty rather than weakening fundamentals. We share that view. As management teams begin to show measurable returns from AI deployment over the coming quarters, we see scope for sentiment to normalize, supporting stabilization and a gradual re-rating across the sector.
Now, it’s time for the fun part. The SaaS sell-off is creating dispersion, and we believe our top software and cybersecurity pick positions us well for that divergence by focusing on durable fundamentals and visibility.